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Meteorologists Explain What Went Wrong With Erroneous Forecast

Meteorologists are apologizing for forecasting a historic blizzard that didn't impact the region as expected.
Meteorologists are apologizing for forecasting a historic blizzard that didn't impact the region as expected. Photo Credit: File

WESTCHESTER COUNTY, N.Y. -- Meteorologists are apologizing and providing explanations after incorrectly forecasting a potentially historic storm for Westchester County and the rest of the tristate area.

Meteorologist Gary Szatkowski of The National Weather Service tweeted " My deepest apologies to many key decision makers and so many members of the general public . You made a lot of tough decisions expecting us to get it right, and we didn't. Once again, I'm sorry ."

Most meteorologists were forecasting a storm that had the potential to dump as much as 30 inches of snow on the area with snowfall rates of up to 4 inches per hour on Monday night. The reality, however was far more tame, with only 2-3 inches in some places.

What went wrong in the forecast? The storm tracked farther east than expected and was less powerful than believed, according to a local forecaster.

“The bands are dissipating too far east," said Gary Lessor, assistant to the director of meteorological studies and the Weather Center at Western Connecticut State University in Danbury. “The trough was supposed to turn negative. The alignment of upper level energy didn’t quite materialize.”

The snow that has fallen has been very light and fine, which was expected, Lessor said. The snow was not expected to be very heavy or wet.

Lessor has said that the area can expect to see some minor snowfall Thursday night, as well as Sunday night heading into Monday, but neither is predicted to be as severe as this storm was thought to be.

He also said that next month will bring very cold weather, with February temperatures averaging about 10 degrees lower than the norm.

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